Republicans in no rush for presidential campaign

WASHINGTON — The first Republican debate has been announced. The early media handicapping has begun. Anticipation in the political community is running high. By those signs, the curtain is set to rise on the 2012 GOP presidential campaign. But what about the candidates?

At this point four years ago, the race for the White House was already in high gear. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., filed his declaration of candidacy soon after the 2006 midterm elections. Barack Obama, then a junior senator, stirred Democratic hearts during a December trip to New Hampshire. Talented operatives spent the final months of the year juggling offers from rival campaigns in a furious bid to sign up staff.

In contrast to all that, the Republicans' 2012 campaign is off to a less hurried start. Candidates are gauging fundraising needs and laying plans. Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., will be in Iowa this month. But the timetable for announcements and serious engagement has been pushed into next year.

Compared with previous campaigns, no Republican dominates the field. No one can claim — or seemingly wants to claim — front-runner status. Thus, few fear that holding off for a while will damage their chances of winning the nod.

"I don't think anybody's going to miss out a lot by waiting a couple of months," said Mike DuHaime, who managed former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani's presidential campaign and later joined the McCain team. "You can't wait eight or nine months, but it doesn't have to be in December and January."

Another reason is the political upheaval of 2010. With a new Republican majority in the House and more Republicans in the Senate, more of the focus early next year will be on political battles in Washington than on the jousting among presidential candidates.

Still another reason is that the parties have established nomination calendars that call for the first primaries and caucuses to begin in February 2012, a month later than they did in 2008.

Internal battle looms

Once the campaign begins in earnest, Republicans will face the potential of another round in the battle between the party establishment and grass-roots insurgents. The insurgents, symbolized by tea-party activists, won many of those primary battles in 2010, and the tension between those parts of the GOP probably will affect the shape of the nomination campaign. The risk is that candidates will be pushed too far right in the primaries, potentially compromising their prospects in the general election.

At this point, only a few potential candidates are considered certain to run, among them former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and outgoing Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty. Others are likely to run, but a number appear far from a decision.

In public statements, Palin has inched closer to serious consideration of a presidential run. She will make two stops in Iowa over the next month as part of a book tour. But by all indications, her small staff is not engaged in any campaign planning.

Is Romney in front?

The closest the Republicans have to a front-runner is Romney, but he does not have the breadth of support that some previous front-runners did. He has worked to deepen his connections to party activists and elected officials, but he remains vulnerable to criticism that as governor he helped enact a universal health-care plan that is strikingly similar to the one President Obama signed into law this year.

Some rival campaigns expect Romney to form his team early next year and again attempt to demonstrate overwhelming financial strength. But an aide to the former governor said Romney thinks the process began too early last time. This time, the aide said, Romney is not likely even to form an exploratory committee until March. But he already has been lining up financial support and pledges.

If anyone is emulating the Romney of four years ago, it is Pawlenty. He registers in low single digits in polls, as Romney did last time, and has spent the past year diligently introducing himself to GOP audiences. Pawlenty has assembled a solid team of advisers, including in Iowa, where he has spent considerable time building relationships. His Iowa team already is interviewing potential state directors, according to one knowledgeable GOP strategist.

Gingrich, who sounds more like a candidate than he ever has, will wait until April. Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour and Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, two party pros with potential followings, have legislative sessions to deal with and aren't likely to announce decisions before spring.

Sen. John Thune, R-S.D., like Pawlenty a young and handsome Midwesterner, has signaled his interest in a possible campaign and has a war chest from the Senate that could give him an early boost. But his vote for the Troubled Assets Relief Program is a potential obstacle. Spokesman Kyle Downey said Thune is focused on the lame-duck session of Congress and won't make a decision until early next year.

Rep. Mike Pence, R-Ind., has earned plaudits from conservatives for his votes and his rhetoric. He won a straw poll at the Values Voter Summit this fall. But he is weighing both a presidential campaign and a run for governor in his home state and isn't ready to announce anything yet. He has given up his House leadership post and will speak this month at the Detroit Economic Club.

Moving more rapidly is former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa. He lost his seat in 2006 but has made 19 trips to the first three primary and caucus states — seven to Iowa, six to New Hampshire and six to South Carolina. He plans another round before the end of the year as he tries to stake out a position as a favorite of social and religious conservatives.

Possible wild card

Could an unknown or unexpected candidate win this nomination? Some Republicans think that's possible, given the turmoil in the party and the unpredictability of the voters. That kind of talk brings attention to people such as New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Texas Gov. Rick Perry and even Sen.-elect Marco Rubio, R-Fla.

Late last week, it was announced that the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library would hold the first Republican candidate debate of the 2012 campaign, sponsored by NBC News and Politico. Most telling, however, was the absence of a date. The debate will take place next spring — once there are some candidates to invite.