Horse Racing | Plenty of doubts about Zenyatta

ARCADIA, Calif. — After Rachel Alexandra dominated much of the U. S. racing season, it is finally Zenyatta's moment to take center stage. The 5-year-old mare, who has won all 13 of her races with a powerful late kick, will face males for the first time when she runs Saturday in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

Zenyatta is the biggest star in two days of racing at Santa Anita that begins today and includes 14 stake races with more than $25 million in purse money. But there are substantial reasons to doubt that she can beat male rivals as Rachel Alexandra did.

Trainer John Shirreffs has given Zenyatta an ultraconservative campaign this season, racing her four times on the synthetic tracks she loves, always against small fields of overmatched fillies and mares. Zenyatta didn't blow away this competition, and her speed figures were unexceptional. Her modest winning margins were partly the result of her catch-'em-at-the-wire style, but nevertheless she has not looked as impressive as she was in her best efforts of 2008.

It requires a giant leap of faith to conclude, from her 2009 form, that Zenyatta can beat the Classic field that includes the best U.S. males — Summer Bird and Quality Road — and two top Europeans. It is preposterous that she is the 5-2 morning-line favorite.

Zenyatta's main advantage is that she has proved herself on synthetic tracks while her principal rivals have not. This is an issue that handicappers will confront in every Breeders' Cup event on Santa Anita's Pro-Ride surface: How do you evaluate horses such as Summer Bird and Quality Road who have never raced on a synthetic track? How do you view European turf specialists running on Pro-Ride?

The 2008 Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita provided clear evidence with which to answer these questions. Dirt specialists who were unproven on synthetics were unable to win, but turf horses made the transition effectively.

If the 2009 Classic had been run on dirt, Summer Bird and Quality Road would have been the standouts. On Pro-Ride, I'm throwing them both out. I'll take a stand against Zenyatta. That leaves the two European entrants, Rip Van Winkle and Twice Over. Rip Van Winkle won two straight Grade I stakes in England after losing by a length to the continent's superstar, See the Stars. He, not Zenyatta, is the class of the Classic field.