GOP sees positive signs for midterms next year

WASHINGTON — Republicans hope gubernatorial victories in Virginia and New Jersey on Tuesday will launch a comeback heading into next year's midterm elections for control of Congress.

How much the results reflected on voters' satisfaction with the Obama administration was debatable. They did, however, suggest that Republicans have more momentum than Democrats do, potentially crucial as both parties prepare for next year, when 38 of 100 Senate seats and all 435 seats in the House are up for election.

"It has an enormous impact on candidate recruitment and the ability to raise money," Republican pollster Bill McInturff said.

The elections also were an early test of which party is doing better with independent voters — polls suggested Republican winners Bob McDonnell in Virginia and Chris Christie in New Jersey did well — and of whether Democrats can turn out African Americans and young voters in anywhere near the numbers they did in 2008 with Barack Obama on the ballot.

McDonnell ran on the promise of improving the economy and transportation, but also waded into national issues such as health care when he said flatly that he would keep Virginia out of a government-run health-insurance program if given the option by Congress to opt out.

His victory stopped a string of Democratic victories in a state that was a poster child for the Democratic Party's hopes of eroding the Republican base in the South.

The Democrats had won the governor's office in 2001 and 2005, then in 2006 and 2008 won both Senate seats, which they hadn't controlled simultaneously since 1970. Obama won the state in last year's presidential election, making him the first Democrat to carry the capital of the old Confederacy since Lyndon Johnson's 1964 landslide.

Virginia has a long history of voting against the party in power in the White House, most recently electing two Republicans during Democrat Bill Clinton's two-term presidency, then electing two Democrats during Republican George W. Bush's eight years in the White House.

However, the state has emerged as more of a national bellwether in recent years, as its vote for Obama in 2008 was closer to his national average than any other state. "It's the ultimate swing state," University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato said.

Whether the races in Virginia and New Jersey were a referendum on Obama was unclear.

Obama did campaign in both states for the Democratic candidates and helped raise money for their campaigns.

There were few signs, though, that the president managed to turn on and turn out the same kind of support that he won for himself last year, particularly from core Democratic voters.

White House aides, perhaps anticipating losses for their party, downplayed the significance of all of Tuesday's elections and insisted they do not serve as a guide to next year's elections.

"We don't look at either of these gubernatorial races or the congressional race [in New York's District 23] as something that portends a lot for our legislative efforts going forward or political prospects in 2010," White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said.