Big win surprises city attorney victor

Heading into election night, Pete Holmes figured he'd eventually win the Seattle city attorney's race but would finish the evening a few percentage points behind his rival, two-term incumbent Tom Carr.

So when Tuesday's results were posted — Holmes with 62 percent of the vote, Carr with 38 percent — Holmes was shocked. Kathy Mulady, his communications manager, screamed.

The margin stayed the same after Wednesday's vote tally, marking the first time in 32 years that an incumbent Seattle city attorney has been ousted.

In fact, it's the first time since 1977 that a city attorney has been opposed for re-election.

So how did Holmes end up not only winning, but trouncing a well-established incumbent?

Here are some theories from those close to the race:

• People were looking for a shake-up in city government, making it a tough year for any incumbent. The tone was set when Mayor Greg Nickels was defeated in the primary. Both Carr and Holmes strategist Christian Sinderman consider the "change" factor significant.

• Carr inadvertently helped build a coalition of folks against him. It included people in the entertainment industry angry over Carr's handling of a 2007 nightclub-sting operation, basketball fans who thought Carr could have done a better job with the Sonics lease trial, and open-government advocates from both the left and right who thought he didn't put enough emphasis on government transparency.

Seattle Councilmember Nick Licata, a Holmes supporter, considers this a big factor.

• Endorsements have a bigger impact on smaller races, and Holmes won some key nods.

The theory is that voters didn't follow the city attorney's race as closely as the high-profile races for mayor and county executive, and therefore relied more on endorsements. Pete Holmes managed to land endorsements from a host of Democratic districts and editorial boards as diverse in viewpoint as The Stranger and The Seattle Times. Holmes says the result was many Democrats were campaigning for him and distributing literature, freeing him to target others with his advertising buys.

• The "phone-a-friend" factor. Because voters aren't paying as much attention to the race, they ask a friend for a recommendation. Therefore, perhaps, Carr's vocal opponents might have been able to magnify their impact on the race.

• Holmes ran a good campaign. His messages about trying to stop a jail from being built in Seattle, ending prosecutions for marijuana possession and running a more accountable, open office, resonated with people, some say. He was able to build a loyal following and momentum in the weeks leading up to the election.

Whatever the reasons for Holmes' big victory, the election has helped the two candidates bury the hatchet after a series of bruising debates. Holmes says Carr called him to concede Tuesday and was gracious in defeat, promising to help smooth the transition.

News researcher Gene Balk contributed to this report. Nick Perry: 206-515-5639 or nperry@seattletimes.com