The Giants will win if ...

1. Tom Coughlin is mentioned in the same breath as Bill Parcells. After NBC's Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth are done yapping about Peyton Manning's neck, the announcers have certain story lines to follow. One is the current Giants coach's place in history; another Super Bowl win ties him with Parcells. While the Big Tuna is more beloved, Coughlin's legacy would be tough to match at that point.

2. Ahmad Bradshaw is turned loose. A big difference from the last time these teams met in the Super Bowl is that the Giants are now a pass-first team. While Eli Manning has proved he's up to the challenge, New York might want to stick with Bradshaw and the ground game to keep Tom Brady and the Pats' potent offense off the field.

3. Mathias Kiwanuka has a grand homecoming. Before the Giants' pass-rush specialist was a star at Boston College, he grew up in Indianapolis. Can you imagine a better story than the hometown kid forcing a Brady fumble that is returned for the winning score? Pats fans can, but this is a dream for the Giants' faithful.

The Patriots will win if ...

1. Bill Belichick smiles. OK, the Patriots coach does show some warmth — about as often as the Lions go to the Super Bowl. But generally speaking, behind that gray hoodie is a snarl that impresses even the Grinch who stole Christmas. How does one snap Belichick out of his Grim Reaper persona? Simple — by getting him a winning the Super Bowl persona.

2. Tom Brady branches out. Rob Gronkowski and Wes Welker are sure to draw the most attention from the Giants' secondary. One way to combat this is for Brady to look to 2005 Super Bowl MVP Deion Branch, who caught 11 passes in New England's 24-21 victory over the Eagles. The receiver isn't what he used to be, but his 700-plus yards and five touchdowns this season prove he's still a viable threat.

3. Stephen Gostkowski does his best Adam Vinatieri impression. Vinatieri, of course, hit the game-winning field goals in the final seconds of the Patriots' first two Super Bowl wins. New England might not want it to come down to the last kick, but Gostkowski has filled his predecessor's shoes nicely in all other respects since taking over in 2006.

Giants to watch

Victor Cruz: No one knew who the receiver was a year ago. Now, he's the Giants' best weapon, with 82 catches for 1,536 yards and nine TDs. Facing a weak Pats secondary, Cruz probably is all set for one of his famous salsa dances after a score in Indy.

Jason Pierre-Paul: Patriots quarterback Tom Brady must be dreading having to dodge the NFL's most dominant defensive lineman. With amazing speed and agility, Pierre-Paul, who had 16 ½ sacks this season, can control a game. If he does so on Sunday, Big Blue is going to be very happy.

Lawrence Tynes: He's nailed the winning kick in two NFC title games for the Giants, and given both teams' history of nail-biting Super Bowls, kicking could make the difference.

Patriots to watch

BenJarvus Green-Ellis: It's true the Pats need some form of a running game to help Brady. It's true that Green-Ellis scored 11 TDs this year. And it's true that he's never lost a fumble. But here's the real truth: Green-Ellis' strong blocking will be huge on Sunday.

Vince Wilfork: Forget the Giants' great front four — Wilfork, with 2 ½ sacks this postseason, is as good as any of them. And remember Eli Manning can't complete another crazy pass, as he did four years ago to David Tyree, if he's on his back.

Rob Gronkowski: If his injured ankle is healed, there may be no stopping the Patriots' 6-foot-6 tight end. Brady has suitable targets at wide receiver, yet it's the "Gronk" who has become New England's most exciting player.

The Washington Post